The Overbooking Calculation
Overbooking levels are computed, not guessed - expected wash, error tolerance and cost trade-offs set the number.
calculateThe Core Formula
Acceptable overbooking equals expected no-shows and cancellations, minus expected early departures, adjusted by the reliability of those estimates.
A worked example: a 300-room hotel is 100 percent sold. History says 4 percent wash - about 12 rooms - and recent forecast error has run about 2 rooms.
Twelve expected washed rooms minus a 2-room safety buffer means the hotel can sell up to roughly 10 rooms beyond capacity and still expect to house everyone who arrives.
balanceThe Cost Trade-Off
Every room of overbooking moves the hotel between two failure modes, each with its own price tag:
trending_downUnder-Overbooking
Rooms spoil silently - the cost is the marginal room revenue lost on every washed room that is not resold.
warningOver-Overbooking
Guests get walked - relocation, compensation, refunds, goodwill, and review damage that can exceed a night's revenue many times over.
The optimum: the right overbook level sits where the marginal cost of one more spoiled room equals the marginal cost of walking one more guest.
tuneInputs to the Number
Six inputs feed the calculation every day. Weakness in any one of them shows up directly in the level you dare to sell:
Expected Wash
The segment-weighted no-show and cancellation forecast for the date in question.
Forecast Error
Widen or narrow the buffer by how wrong your forecasts have been lately.
House Position
Actual rooms sold, out-of-order rooms, and suites available for upgrade relief.
Arrivals Mix
VIPs, groups, and guaranteed versus non-guaranteed arrivals on the book.
Walk Cost
The real cost of relocating a guest tonight - hotel, transport, and compensation.
Spoilage Cost
The marginal revenue of one more sold room - what a spoiled night forfeits.
Never a static number: recompute as the picture changes - an incoming group's wash pattern, a weather event, or a pickup surge all move today's safe overbook level hour by hour.
translatePenjelasan dalam Bahasa Indonesiaexpand_more
Perhitungan overbooking menetapkan jumlah kamar yang aman dijual melebihi kapasitas berdasarkan angka, bukan tebakan. Rumus intinya: acceptable overbooking = expected no-shows & cancellations - expected early departures, disesuaikan keandalan estimasi. Enam input, dari expected wash hingga spoilage cost, mengisi hitungan yang wajib dihitung ulang setiap hari.
- check_circleRumus inti: acceptable overbooking = expected no-shows & cancellations - expected early departures, disesuaikan keandalan estimasi.
- check_circleContoh: hotel 300 kamar terjual 100 persen; wash historis 4 persen atau sekitar 12 kamar, error prakiraan 2 kamar.
- check_circleDua belas kamar wash dikurangi buffer 2 kamar berarti aman menjual sekitar 10 kamar di atas kapasitas.
- check_circleUnder-overbooking: kamar hangus senyap; over-overbooking: tamu di-walk dengan relokasi, kompensasi, dan ulasan rusak.
- check_circleTitik optimal: marginal cost satu kamar hangus sama dengan marginal cost me-walk satu tamu.
- check_circleEnam input harian: expected wash, forecast error, house position, arrivals mix, walk cost, dan spoilage cost.
helpPertanyaan Umum (FAQ)
Bagaimana cara menghitung tingkat overbooking hotel?
Hitung expected no-show dan pembatalan, kurangi expected early departure, lalu sesuaikan dengan keandalan prakiraan misalnya lewat buffer galat. Hasilnya adalah jumlah kamar yang relatif aman dijual melebihi kapasitas fisik pada tanggal tersebut.
Berapa contoh perhitungan overbooking dalam praktik?
Hotel 300 kamar terjual penuh dengan wash historis 4 persen atau sekitar 12 kamar dan galat prakiraan 2 kamar. Dikurangi buffer keamanan, hotel dapat menjual sekitar 10 kamar di atas kapasitas dan tetap menampung semua tamu yang datang.
Apa risiko overbooking terlalu sedikit atau terlalu banyak?
Terlalu sedikit berarti kamar hangus senyap tanpa pendapatan yang bisa direbut kembali. Terlalu banyak berarti tamu di-walk, dengan biaya relokasi, kompensasi, dan ulasan buruk yang bisa berlipat dari pendapatan satu malam.